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Nedopysuvach (ale Potsinovuvach) [Останнi 20 месаг]
№ 1713955 вiд 2025-02-06 10:23:41
От правильні моменти:
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It is... ill-advised for Kellogg to urge Ukraine to hold elections after any ceasefire. Moscow is performing poorly on the battlefield but excels at election interference. Recent elections in Moldova, Georgia and Romania are highly dispositive, a foreshadowing of what would come.
... Kellogg, for now, is struggling to set conditions for any meaningful negotiations. Putin is clearly waiting for a face-to-face meeting with Trump in what he hopes becomes a second Yalta-like conference.
Wittingly or not, Kellogg is trapped in a Monty Hall-like “Let’s Make a Deal” modus operandi of his own making — as opposed to a more forceful “this is what you are going to do” approach to Putin and his cronies in the Kremlin. This peace deal is more in the short-term interests of the U. S. and not the victim — Ukraine.
Presently, Kellogg has no negotiating leverage. There are signs that may change. On Monday, Trump announced that he wants Ukraine to repay the U. S. with rare earth minerals valued at “close to $300 billion.” Kellogg would be wise to remind Trump that parts of the illegally Russian-occupied Donbas are rich in natural resources.
... So Ukraine is more than capable of paying its way forward. It is time Kellogg reminded Putin of that reality.
But Putin will get that message only to the extent that his nose is bloodied on the battlefield. He survived Biden’s “just enough” war in Ukraine, and now he believes he can outlast Trump.
Kellogg can disabuse Putin of that notion by empowering the armed forces of Ukraine to take the fight to the Russians, and to do so now.
... The only way for Kellogg to create decisive negotiating leverage and stop the killing in Ukraine is to defeat Russia and drive it out of the country. That involves the use of all the instruments on national power: diplomatic, information, military and economy, or DIME.
New sanctions, coordinating with OPEC to drive down the cost of oil, and targeting shadow fleets alone will not bring Putin to the negotiating table. The hammer — the punch to the face — must come from the military instrument of national power. While Ukraine is effectively targeting oil refineries, they must take pressure off their front-line units in the close fight, and that requires interdiction.
This entails targeting Russian, North Korean and Chechen forces, their equipment, weapons, ammunition, fuel, supplies in Russia before they enter Ukraine. It means targeting them in their assembly areas, at the seaports, airports, and railheads, ammunition storage areas and fuel depots. Only when Putin feels threatened with the loss of his army will he come to the negotiating table — sanctions will not do that.
Putin will negotiate with Kellogg, but only when he is made to realize he has truly lost on the battlefields of Ukraine.
Anything less, and it is likely Yalta 2.0 whenever Putin and Trump meet. And a new Iron Curtain will fall.